为什么经济学家讨厌Trump的关税计划❓

YouTube 英文 Mar 18, 2025
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逐句精讲:

Before we get into tariffs, the heart of the Donald Trump economic plan, we should talk about the chicken war.

📖 中文翻译:在我们详细探讨关税这一唐纳德·川普经济计划的核心内容之前,我们应该先讨论一下历史上的“鸡肉战争”。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 Before we get into tariffs:

👉 这里的 "get into" 是一个常用的短语,意味着开始讨论或涉及某个话题。它并不是字面意义上的“进入”,而是比喻地表示“深入探讨”或“开始处理”。

👉 tariffs :关税(tariff /ˈtærɪf/ 的复数),是一个经济学术语,指的是一国对进口商品征收的税。在这个句子中,它是即将被讨论的主题。

🎧 the heart of the Donald Trump economic plan:

👉 这里的“the heart of” 是一个常用的表达,意思是“核心”或“中心点”。这表明Donald Trump经济计划的核心焦点是关税。

🎧 we should talk about the chicken war:

👉 这里的 “chicken war” 并非指真正的战争,它指的是1960年代美国和欧洲经济共同体(EEC, 现在的欧盟的前身之一,1957年成立,1993年发展为欧盟(EU))之间因为家禽(主要是鸡肉)贸易争议而引发的一系列关税报复措施。当时美国通过工业化养殖大幅降低鸡肉生产成本,向欧洲大量出口廉价鸡肉(1962年美国鸡肉占西德进口量的60%),导致欧洲本地家禽业受到严重冲击。

The chicken war is a cluckin' good story. In post-World War II West Germany, people started eating a lot of chicken, specifically American chicken.

📖 ‘鸡战’真是个有趣的故事。在二战后的西德地区,人们开始大量地食用鸡肉,更明确地说,是美国的鸡肉。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧The chicken war is a cluckin' good story:

👉 Cluckin': 这里 “cluckin'” 是 “clucking” 的缩写形式,“Clucking” 常用来描述鸡的叫声(咯咯叫:指母鸡发出的声音。),在这里用作形容词,意指与 “chicken” 有关的。使整个句子更加生动和贴切。

👉 Good story: 意为“好故事”,“有趣、值得一谈的故事”

🎧 In post-World War II West Germany:

👉 post-World War II:意思是“第二次世界大战后”。其中 “post-” 是一个前缀,表示“之后”

👉 West Germany:指的是第二次世界大战后分裂的德国的西部,即联邦德国(Federal Republic of Germany),这一区域与东德(German Democratic Republic)相对。

🎧 people started eating a lot of chicken:

👉 started:这里用的是一般过去时,表示过去开始了某个动作。

👉 eating a lot of:这里用到了 "start doing sth" 的短语,表明“开始食用很多的......”。其中,“a lot of” 意味着“大量的”。

🎧 specifically American chicken:

👉 specifically:副词,用来指“特别地”,“明确地”。在这里,它用于强调鸡肉类型是特定的,即美国鸡肉。

👉 American chicken:指的是来源于美国的鸡肉。

Midway through 1962, U.S farmers were on track to sell more than $50 million worth — half a billion in today's money.

📖 截至1962年年中,美国农民的销售额预计突破5000万美元大关(按当今货币价值折算约为5亿美元)。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 Midway through 1962:

👉 midway through: 表示某个活动、事件或过程已经进行了一半,还有一半需要完成。在这里,"midway through 1962" 用于描述时间,即“1962年年中”

📢 这种表达方式通常在报道性文章中出现,用于设定一个事件发生的具体时间。

👉 U.S farmers were on track to sell more than $50 million worth — half a billion in today's money:

👉 U.S.: 是 “United States” 的缩写,指的是“美国”

👉 farmers: 是名词 “farmer 农民” 的复数形式。

👉 were on track to: "be on track to do sth" 这个短语用来表示“某人或某事正按预定计划或进度进行,或者即将达到某个目标”

👉 sell more than $50 million worth: 这部分描述了销售的价值量。"sell" 是动词,表示“售卖”。"worth" 在这里用作名词,意为“价值”。"$50 million worth" 是一个固定的表达,表示“价值为5000万美元(的商品)”

👉 half a billion in today’s money: "in today's money" 指代将过去的金钱数额根据现今的货币价值或购买力进行调整之后的数额。

👉 —: 破折号引出补充说明,“half a billion in today's money” 即按现在的货币价值算的话是5亿。

This made European farmers mad, so the organization that later became the European Union put a tariff on chicken.

📖 这让欧洲的农民感到愤怒,因此后来成为欧盟的组织对鸡肉征收了关税。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 This made European farmers mad:

👉 This: 指代前文提到的情况。

👉 make sb mad: 使某人愤怒。

👉 mad: 形容词,表达的是“愤怒”的情感。“mad” 除了表示“疯狂的”,在口语中常用来表示“愤怒的情绪”。(这里是说农民群体的强烈不满)

👉 European farmers:European” 是形容词,意思是“欧洲的”,“farmers” 是名词,意思是“农民”。"European farmers" 指的是在欧洲从事农业活动的人。

🎧 ... organization that later became the .... put a tariff on chicken:

👉 organization: 名词,意思是“组织”,指的是由多人组成的、有共同目的或活动的集体。

👉 that later became......: 定语从句,修饰前面的名词 “organization”,用 “that” 来引导。这里的 “later” 是副词,用来说明时间的先后顺序,表示这个组织在后来成为了欧盟。

👉 the European Union: 缩写为“EU”,是“欧洲联盟”的意思,是一个政治和经济联盟,其中包括德国、法国、比利时、西班牙、意大利、荷兰等多个欧洲国家。

👉 put a tariff on chicken:put a tariff on” 是一个短语,意思是“对…征收关税”。

A five-pound chicken that started as $1.60 became $2.25. Imports quickly dropped. U.S chicken farmers and politicians were furious.

📖 一只五磅重的鸡价格从1.60美元涨到了2.25美元。进口量迅速下降。美国的养鸡户和政治家们愤怒不已。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 A five-pound chicken that started as $1.60 became $2.25:

👉 Five-pound: 合成词,表示五磅重(的)。"Five-pound" 里的 “pound” 是英制重量单位“磅”

👉 that started as $1.60: 定语从句,用来修饰 “a five-pound chicken”“that” 是关系代词,代表 “chicken”,在从句中充当主语,而 “started as $1.60” 表示鸡的初始价格为1.6美金

👉 $1.60, $2.25: 这些是货币金额,符号“$”通常是指美元。

👉 Became: 是动词 “become” 的过去式,意为“变成”,在这里用来表示价格的变化。

🎧 Imports quickly dropped:

👉 Imports: 是 “import” 的复数形式,这里用作名词,指的是“进口总额”。

👉 quickly: 副词,表示“快速地”,用来修饰动词 “dropped”,表示下降的速度很快。

👉 dropped: 是动词 “drop” 的过去式。表示“下降、减少”

🎧 U.S chicken farmers and politicians were furious:

👉 politicians: 政客,参与政治管理、立法或政策的制定。

👉 furious: 形容词,意为“极度愤怒的”“狂怒的”

And we thought Germany's our big market for chicken, and so if we hurt the Germans, maybe we'll get them to change their mind on chicken.

📖 我们原以为德国是我们鸡肉的主要市场,因此,如果打压德国人,或许能迫使他们调整在鸡肉进口方面的政策。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 And we thought Germany's our big market for chicken:

👉 thought: 用的是 “think” 的过去时,表示这是“过去的想法或观点”。这种用法多用来引出过去的想法或假设。

👉 Germany's...:这是一个缩略形式,完整表达应是 “Germany is...”。意思是“德国是...”

👉 big market: 指的是“重要或主要的市场”

🎧 and so if we hurt the Germans, maybe we'll get them to change their mind on chicken:

👉 if we hurt the Germans:条件句,用 “if” 引导,表示“如果我们伤害了德国人”。在这里,“hurt” 并不是指身体上的伤害,而是指通过一些政策或商业行为对德国人造成不利影响

👉 ...get them to change...: 用到了 “get someone to do something” 的结构,表示“促使某人做某事”

👉 change one's mind: 是一个常用短语,表示“改变某人的看法或决定”

Time Square, New York during daytime

So the U.S put a 25% tariff on trucks, like Germany's Volkswagen. And it worked, their truck sales in the U.S fell by half, and they never really recovered. Meanwhile, Germans paid more for their chicken, and Americans had fewer truck options.

📖 美国对卡车(如德国大众汽车)征收了25%的关税。这一政策奏效了,大众卡车在美销量减半,且始终未能真正恢复。与此同时,德国人需要支付更高的鸡肉价格,而美国消费者则面临更少的卡车选择。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 So the U.S put a 25% tariff on trucks, like Germany's Volkswagen:

👉 trucks:是 “truck /trʌk/ 卡车”的复数,指一种大型载货车辆

👉 like:介词,表示例子或相似的情况,相当于中文里的“像是”。

👉Germany's Volkswagen

    • Germany's:所有格形式,指“属于...的”。一般来说,在品牌或公司名字前使用国家名通常指由那个国家生产的产品。
    • Volkswagen:是“大众汽车”的英文名,总部位于德国的国际知名汽车制造商。

🎧 And it worked, their truck sales in the U.S fell by half, and they never really recovered:

👉 worked: 是 “work 起作用、成功” 的过去式。“it worked” 是一个非常实用的表达,表示“起作用了”

👉 fell: 是动词 "fall" 的过去式,意思是“下降”、“减少”或“跌落”。

👉 by: 这个介词用来表达“某个度量(比如说价格、数量等)上的变化量”"fell by half" 的意思是“减少了一半”

👉 recovered: 是动词 “recover” 的过去式,意思是“恢复、复原”

🎧 Meanwhile, Germans paid more for their chicken, and Americans had fewer truck options:

👉 options: "option /ˈɑːpʃ(ə)n/" 的复数,意为“可选择的事物”

It's kind of a perfect example of what tariffs do — hurt consumers while protecting very specific industries, or attempt to get countries to change their behavior.

📖 这可以说是关税作用的典型体现——在保护某些特定行业的同时损害消费者利益,或试图迫使其他国家改变其行为。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 It's kind of a perfect example of what tariffs do

👉 kind of: 一个常用的口语表达,意思是“有点儿”“某种程度上”

👉 a perfect example: 意为“一个完美的例子”。用来指出非常典型地展示了某个观点或现象。

👉 what tariffs do:意指“关税带来的结果”

🎧 hurt consumers while protecting very specific industries, or attempt to get countries to change their behavior:

👉 consumers: "consumer /kənˈsuːmər/" 的复数,消费者。

👉 while: 表示“同时发生的动作进行对比”,一方面(关税伤害了消费者),另一方面(却保护了特定的行业)。

👉 very specific industries: 强调关税保护的是“非常特定的几个行业”

👉 attempt to: 尝试做某事。这里指政府通过实施关税“试图”影响其他国家的政策。

👉 change one's behavior: 改变某人的行为、做法

While they haven't been a large part of trade policy in decades, former President Donald Trump wants to change that.

📖 虽然几十年来它们一直不是贸易政策的重要组成部分,但前总统唐纳德·川普希望改变这一点。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 While they haven't been a large part of trade policy in decades:

👉 While...: 引导让步状语从句,表示 “尽管...但...” 的逻辑关系。

👉 a large part:意为“很大一部分”,在这里用来描述贸易政策的“一个重要组成部分”

👉 trade policy: 意为“贸易政策”。属于经济贸易领域的专业术语。

👉 in decades: 数十年来

Some might say it's economic nationalism, I call it common sense, I call it America first.

📖 有些人可能会说这是经济民族主义,而我则称之为常识,称之为“美国优先”。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 Some might say it's economic nationalism:

👉 Some:这里的 "Some" 是一个不定代词, 用于指代一部分人,不特指哪些人,类似于汉语中的“有些人”“有人”

👉 Some might say:构成了一种推测或不肯定的说法,即“有人可能会说”

👉 economic nationalism:名词短语,"Economic" 作为形容词,意为“经济的”“Nationalism” 是名词,表示“民族主义”。结合起来“经济民族主义”指的是一种政策或倾向,主张国家应当控制经济资源,保护国内经济,减少外国干涉。

🎧 I call it common sense, I call it America first:

👉 common sense:常识。通常指一种基本的、不需深入学习即可掌握的判断力或理解力。

👉 America first美国优先(川普的核心政策口号),指在进行国际关系、外交、经济政策决策时,优先考虑美国的利益。

President Trump has really sort of brought a lot of people out to think that tariffs might be something that's useful in America's economic arsenal in a way that hasn't been used in the past.

📖 川普总统确实让很多人觉得,关税或许能成为美国经济武器库中的一种有用手段,而这种手段在过去从未被采用过。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 has really sort of brought a lot of people out to think...:

👉 has brought out: “bring out” 的现在完成时,强调持续影响,意为“激发、促使”

🎧 that's useful in America's economic arsenal in a way that hasn't been used in the past:

👉 economic arsenal: 经济武器库。这是一个比喻用法,将一个国家的经济策略比作武器库中的各种武器。

👉 in a way: 介词短语,“以某种方式”的意思。

👉 that hasn't been used in the past: 又一个关系代词 “that” 引导的定语从句,修饰前面的 “a way”。表示“这种使用方式(通过关税影响经济)在过去未采用过”

landscape photo of New York Empire State Building

Here's how tariffs work and what Trump's proposals would do. Let's start in 2018, when President Trump put tariffs on Washing machines. are going to benefit our consumers and we're going to create a lot of jobs.

📖 以下是关税运作方式以及川普的提案将会带来的影响。让我们从 2018 年说起,当时特川普总统对洗衣机征收了关税。这将使我们的消费者受益,并且我们还将创造大量就业机会。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 Here's how tariffs work and what Trump's proposals would do:

👉 Here's how...: 常见的口语表达方式,相当于 “下面是如何…的方法”"Here's how" 是缩写形式,完整形式是 "Here is how"。

👉 what

    • 引导从句"what" 引导从句 "what Trump's proposals would do",相当于一个名词,整体作为主句的表语(与前半句的 "how tariffs work" 并列)。
    • 在从句中作宾语:在从句内部,"what" 是动词 "do" 的宾语,指代 "Trump's proposals" 将会产生的具体效果或结果。

👉 proposals: 提议,提案,(Proposal /prəˈpoʊz(ə)l/ 的复数)。

🎧 ...put tariffs on washing machines. are going to benefit our consumers and we're going to create a lot of jobs:

👉 washing machines: 洗衣机

👉 benefit: 有益于,对......有利

👉 create a lot of jobs: 创造很多工作岗位,创造大量的就业机会。

Since then, whenever a washing machine is imported to the U.S., the company on the U.S side doing the importing pays a tariff to the U.S
government.

📖 从那以后,每当有一台洗衣机进口到美国时,负责进口的美国这边的公司就要向美国政府缴纳关税。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 Since then, whenever a washing machine is imported to the U.S:

👉 Since then: 时间状语,指“自从某个特定事件以后”“从此以后”

👉 whenever: 连词,引导时间状语从句。相当于“每当...的时候”

👉 is imported:“import” 的被动态,表示洗衣机是“被进口的”,而不是自己进口自己。

🎧 the company on the U.S side doing the importing pays a tariff to the U.S government.

👉 side: 指的是参与某项交易或活动的“一方”

👉 on the U.S. side: 强调该公司是“美国境内的一方”

👉 doing the importing: 现在分词短语用作形容词,修饰 “side”。整个短语 “doing the importing” 可以理解为“负责进口的”。

Their margins are pretty low. They've got to pass that price on to consumers who ultimately pay it. That's the whole point, in some sense, to reduce demand for those goods and create space for domestic producers.

📖 他们的利润空间相当有限。他们必须将这一价格转嫁给最终购买这些商品的消费者。从某种意义上说,这就是目的所在,即降低这些商品的需求量,为国内生产商腾出空间。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 Their margins are pretty low:

👉 margins: 是 "margin /ˈmɑːrdʒɪn/ 利润" 的复数形式。在商业和财务的语境中,"margin" 通常指的是“利润率”,即收入和支出之间的差额的比率。

👉 pretty: 副词,用来修饰形容词 “low”,表示“相当地”。

🎧 They've got to pass that price on to consumers who ultimately pay it:

👉 They've got to: 常用的口语表达,是 “They have got to” 的缩写,相当于 “They must” “They have to”,意味着“他们必须”。这里使用 “have got to” 比简单的 “have to” 更加强调迫切性或者必要性

👉 pass that price on: 动词短语 “pass on” 在此处的意思是 “转移”

👉 Ultimately /ˈʌltɪmətli/: 副词,表示“最终,最后”

🎧 That's the whole point, in some sense, to reduce demand for those goods and create space for domestic producers:

👉 the whole point: 常用的短语,意思是“关键所在”

👉 in some sense: 介词短语,用于表达“在某种程度上”“从某种角度来看”,用来引出一个稍微抽象或不完全直接的观点。

👉 reduce demand: 意思是“减少需求”

👉 create space: 直译为“创造空间”,在这里是比喻用法,意思是为“提供发展的机会或位置”

👉 domestic producers: 指的是“国内生产者”“domestic” 在这里用作形容词,表示的是“国内的,本国的”

After the tariffs, not only did the price of imported washing machines go up, so did the ones made in the U.S. There's this myth out there that if we tax imports, domestic producers won't change their prices and that's not the case. You're creating more demand for them.

📖 在加征关税之后,不仅进口洗衣机的价格上涨了,美国本土生产的洗衣机的价格也上涨了。有一种说法是,如果我们对进口商品征税,国内生产商就不会调整价格,但事实并非如此。你是在创造更多的需求。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 not only did the price of imported washing machines go up, so did the ones made in the U.S:

👉 倒装结构“not only did...” 使用了倒装结构。正常语序是 “the price of imported washing machines did go up”,但因为使用了 “not only... but also” 结构,所以采用了部分倒装,即助动词 “did” 提前至句首,以加强语气。

👉 not only... but (also):表示“不仅...而且...”。

👉 the price of ... go up: ...的价格上涨。

🎧 There's this myth out there that if we tax imports, domestic producers won't change their prices and that's not the case:

👉 myth /mɪθ/:本意是“神话”“虚构的事”,在这里指“错误的观点,荒诞的说法”,“一个广泛流传但不真实的观念或假设”

👉 out there:常用的口语表达,用于泛指“在外界”

👉 tax imports:对进口的商品征税。

👉 that's not the case: 常用的口语表达,表示“情况不是这样的”

So naturally, the price goes up and it wasn't just washers, dryers went up in price, too, even though they weren't part of the tariffs.

📖 所以很自然地,价格就上涨了,洗衣机的价格上涨了,烘干机的价格也上涨了,尽管烘干机并非关税征收对象。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 it wasn't just washers, dryers went up in price, too, even though they weren't part of the tariffs:

👉 washers: 这里指“洗衣机”

👉 dryers: “dryer 烘干机” 的复数。通常与洗衣机一起使用,用来干燥洗涤后的衣物。

👉 went up in price: “go up in price” 价格上涨

👉 even though: 尽管。这是一个从属连词,用来引导让步状语从句,表明“尽管”存在某种情况,但主句所述的事实仍然成立。

Usually it's the case, if you buy a washer, you buy a dryer. So even though dryers weren't directly affected by the tariff, they were indirectly affected by the shift in demand.

📖 通常情况下,如果你购买一台洗衣机,就会同时购买一台烘干机。所以,尽管烘干机并未直接受到关税的影响,但它们还是受到了需求变化所带来的间接影响。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 ...dryers weren't directly affected by the tariff, they were indirectly affected by the shift in demand:

👉 weren't directly affected: 否定的被动态结构。“weren't” “were not” 的缩写。“Directly” 是一个副词,意为“直接地”“Affected” 是动词 “affect” 的过去分词,意思是“影响”

👉 by the tariff: “by” 表示被动语态中的施动者"weren't directly affected by the tariff" “烘干机没有被关税直接影响”

👉 by the shift in demand: 类似于上文的 “by the tariff”“by” 介词,指影响的来源。“the shift in demand” 指的是“需求的变化”,这是一个名词短语,其中 “shift” 意为“变化”“demand” 意为“需求”

Brooklyn Bridge during golden hour

Now it wasn't all bad. These tariffs did create a lot of jobs. About 1,800, mostly from those foreign companies like Samsung and LG opening plants in the U.S.

📖 情况并非全然糟糕。这些关税的确创造了大量就业机会。约有 1800 个岗位,主要来自那些诸如三星和 LG 这样的外国公司,他们在美国开设工厂。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 ...mostly from those foreign companies like Samsung and LG opening plants in the U.S.:

👉 opening

    • opening 是动词 "open" 的现在分词,与宾语 "plants" 构成分词短语 “opening plants in the U.S”
    • 这个分词短语修饰前面的名词 "companies",相当于一个省略的定语从句:...companies that are opening plants in the U.S.(...正在美国开设工厂的公司)

📢 现在分词作后置定语,表示:

      • 主动关系:companies(主动发出动作)→ opening plants(主动开设工厂)。
      • 进行意义:隐含“正在开设”或“已经开始但未完成”的动作。

👉 plants: 工厂(plant /plænt/ 的复数)

And a study found the U.S collected $82 million annually, but because of those price increases, it cost consumers $1.5 billion more. So they basically paid $815,000 per job.

📖 一项研究发现,美国每年为此支付了 8200 万美元,但由于价格上涨,消费者为此多支付了 15 亿美元。所以他们实际上每份工作要多支付 81.5 万美元。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 ... the U.S collected $82 million annually:

👉 annually: 副词,来源于 “annual”,用来修饰 “collected”,意思是“年度的”或“每年的”

🎧 it cost consumers $1.5 billion more:

👉 cost: 成本,花费。在这个句子中,"cost" 是动词,其后通常接双宾语,一个是付出成本的人(consumers),一个是成本的具体数额($1.5 billion more)。

This is a very expensive job creation program and so that's another reason why economists don't like tariffs. They're much more cost effective, more efficient ways of increasing employment in those industries.

📖 这是一个成本高昂的创造就业机会的计划,这也是经济学家们不喜欢征收关税的原因之一。征收关税在那些行业增加就业的方式成本更低、效率更高。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 ... why economists don't like tariffs. They're much more cost effective, more efficient ways of increasing employment in those industries:

👉 economists: “economist” 的复数。指的是经济学家。

👉 cost effective: 意味着“在考虑成本后,某件事情在施行上是划算的”

👉 efficient /ɪˈfɪʃ(ə)nt/: 意味着“花费的资源(时间、能量、金钱等)较少, 高效的”

These weren't the only tariffs Trump created in 2018. The big ones were on steel and aluminum. Those were really designed to punish China for its transgressions of international trade rules, also for national security.
They're used to make a lot of military equipment, but also everyday things like cars.

📖 这些并非川普在 2018 年所创设的唯一关税项目。规模较大的关税针对的是钢铁和铝制品。这些关税的确旨在惩罚中国违反国际贸易规则的行为,同时也针对其威胁国家安全的行为。中国大量制造军事装备,但同时也生产诸如汽车之类的日常用品。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 The big ones were on steel and aluminum:

👉 steel and aluminum: 这两个词都指金属材料。钢铁(steel)是一种合金,主要由铁和碳组成,具有很高的强度和耐久性,常用于建筑和制造业。铝(aluminum)是一种轻金属,具有良好的导电性和抗腐蚀性,常用于制造飞机、汽车零部件和包装材料等。

🎧 Those were really designed to punish China for its transgressions of international trade rule:

👉 Those:指代前文提到的某些措施或政策。

👉 were really designed:这里用的是 "were"(be动词的过去式)加上过去分词 "designed",形成被动态。"really" 是一个副词,用来加强语气,意为“真正地”“实际上”"were really designed" 可以翻译为“实际上是被设计来”

👉 to punish:这里使用不定式 "to punish" 来表示目的,即措施的目的是“为了惩罚”

👉 transgression /trænzˈɡreʃn/: 是一个比较生僻的词,意为“违规”“犯规”等。

👉 international trade rules:是“国际贸易规则”

🎧 They're used to make a lot of military equipment:

👉 military equipment:名词短语,意为“军事装备”

🎧 but also everyday things like cars:

👉 everyday things:也是一个名词短语,指“日常用品”

All the industries that use steel and have to pay the higher price, that squeezes their profit margins. And it also puts them at a competitive disadvantage against foreign producers of those same goods who don't have to pay those inflated costs for their inputs.

📖 所有使用钢铁且不得不支付更高价格的行业,都会压缩自身的利润率。而且,这还会使这些行业在与那些不需为原材料支付如此高昂成本的外国生产商的竞争中处于劣势。这些外国生产商无需为原材料支付如此高昂的价格,因而具有更强的竞争力。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 that squeezes their profit margins:

👉 profit margins:利润率,指企业销售收入中去除成本之后的净收入占总收入的比例,是评估企业盈利能力的重要指标。

👉 squeeze their profit margins挤压他们的利润空间

🎧 And it also puts them at a competitive disadvantage against foreign producers of those same goods who don't have to pay those inflated costs for their inputs:

👉 put someone at a disadvantage: 是一个常用的表达方式,意指 “使某人或某事处于不利地位”

👉 Competitive disadvantage: 指的是“在竞争中的劣势”,与 "competitive advantage" 竞争优势相对。

👉 against: 在这里表示“相对于”,用来对比。

👉 foreign producers: 指的是“外国生产者”

👉 inflated costs: "Inflated" 此处指“价格高于正常水平的,通货膨胀的”"Costs"“成本”的意思,指生产所需的花费。

👉 inputs: 在经济学中指“投入的资源”,比如原材料、劳动力等,是生产过程所需的基础元素。

And so a lot of studies have shown that you lose jobs, as many if not more jobs in those downstream industries, as you gain in the upstream industries that are being protected by the tariffs.

📖 因此,大量的研究表明,在那些受到关税保护的上游产业中所获得的工作机会,与在那些下游产业中失去的工作机会数量相当甚至更多。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 And so a lot of studies have shown that you lose jobs:

👉 a lot of studies have shown: 许多研究表明了......。这里用来引入证据或研究成果,强调其广泛的认可或证实。

👉 lose jobs: 指的是“失去工作岗位”

🎧 as many if not more jobs in those downstream industries, as you gain in the upstream industries that are being protected by the tariffs:

👉 as many if not more: 这是一个比较结构,意思是“至少同样多,如果不是更多的”

👉 downstream industries: 下游行业。指的是产业链中产品制造完成后涉及的行业,如销售、运输、零售等。

👉 upstream industries: 上游行业。指的是产业链中较早参与的行业,通常涉及原材料的开采和加工,如钢铁、矿业等。

black and white street sign

Many studies on the 2018 tariffs found some pros, some cons. Manufacturing jobs, which were on the decline, didn't increase, but they did level out.

📖 关于 2018 年加征关税的诸多研究发现,其利弊兼有。制造业岗位原本就在减少,但并未增加,不过倒是趋于稳定了。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 Many studies on the 2018 tariffs found some pros, some cons:

👉 some pros, some cons: 这是一个常见的表达,用来简洁地总结事物的正面(pros)和负面(cons)影响。"Pros""advantages" 的非正式表达法,而 "cons""disadvantages" 的俚语说法。

🎧 Manufacturing jobs, which were on the decline, didn't increase, but they did level out:

👉 Manufacturing jobs: 制造行业的工作。制造业通常涉及生产和加工物品。

👉 on the decline: 意思是“正在减少”“在衰退中”

👉 but they did level out: "did" 在这里用于强调动作的发生,尤其是在对立转折的语境中。"level out" 是一个动词短语,意思是“变得稳定,停止上升或下降”

The overall economy lost jobs, mostly in those downstream industries. And the costs of the tariffs were passed on to U.S companies and consumers.

📖 整体经济领域出现了就业岗位流失的情况,主要是在那些下游产业。而且关税的成本转嫁给了美国企业和消费者身上。

So not great for the economy, but it did motivate U.S companies to move out of China and made supply chains more resilient. But it didn't change much of China's behavior and in many ways they became more aggressive.

📖 所以这对经济来说并非好事,但它确实促使美国企业撤离中国,并使供应链更具韧性。但它并没有改变太多中国的行为,在很多方面,中国反而变得更加激进了。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 but it did motivate U.S companies to move out of China and made supply chains more resilient:

👉 move out of: 动词短语,意为“搬出,移出某地”

👉 made 是动词 “make” 的过去式,表示“使成为”。

👉 supply chains: 指的是“供应链”,也就是商品从生产到最终消费者手中的整个流程和环节。

👉 resilient /rɪˈzɪliənt/: 意味着“有弹性的,能迅速恢复的”。通常指能够在面对压力或打击时保持运作或快速恢复。

🎧 But it didn't change much of China's behavior and in many ways they became more aggressive:

👉 in many ways: 表示“在多个方面”“以多种方式”

👉 aggressive /əˈɡresɪv/: 描述一个人或行为具有侵略性、好斗性。

But here's the thing. Even with all the economic downsides, a review by the Biden administration suggested Trump's tariffs should remain, and the administration should add or increase them, which they did.

📖 但事情是这样的。即便考虑到所有经济方面的不利因素,拜登政府的一次审查还是建议川普时期的关税政策应当保留下来,并且政府应当增加或提高这些关税,而他们确实这么做了。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 But here's the thing:

👉 But here's the thing: 常见的口语表达,用于引入一个重点,有时候也用来改变话题方向或引入一个和之前讨论相关但可能有些出人意料的观点或事实。

🎧 Even with all the economic downsides, a review by the Biden administration suggested Trump's tariffs should remain:

👉 economic downsides: 经济的下行风险。这里指的是关税可能导致的不利经济后果,如贸易战、提高消费者成本等。

👉 review by the Biden administration: 指拜登政府对川普时期政策的复查或评估。在这里,“review” 表示“检查或评估”

Once tariffs get in place, there are two factors that sort of keep them in place for some time. First of all, there are going to be domestic interest groups that have a stake in seeing those tariffs maintained, because they like the extra market share that they've gained as a result of those tariffs.

📖 一旦关税措施得以实施,就会有两个因素使得这些关税在一段时间内得以维持下去。首先,会有一些国内利益集团希望这些关税得以保留,因为他们乐于看到因这些关税而获得的额外市场份额。其次,由于关税的存在,相关产业会受到刺激而发展起来,从而促使政府维持这些关税。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 Once tariffs get in place, there are two factors that sort of keep them in place for some time:

👉 Once: 表示“一旦……就……”的含义。

👉 get in plac: “被设立”“到位”。常用来描述某种政策、系统或机制的实施或生效状态。在这里,它指的是关税的实施。

👉 keep them in place: “保持它们不变”“使它们持续存在”。这里的 "keep" “保持”的意思,而 "them" 指的是前文提到的"tariffs"(关税)。"in place" 在这里再次出现,强调关税保持有效或实行状态

👉 for some time: 一段时间。用来指一个不特定但通常不短的时间期限。

🎧 there are going to be domestic interest groups that have a stake in seeing those tariffs maintained:

👉 domestic interest groups: “domestic” 指的是“国内的”,而 “interest groups” 指的是“一群有共同利益的人”,通常他们会尝试影响公共政策或政治决策。这里的 “domestic interest groups” 泛指在国内有特定经济或政治利益的团体

👉 have a stake in: 意思是“对...有重大利益”。如果一个人或团体 "have a stake in sth",意味着 sth 对他们产生重大影响。

👉 seeing those tariffs maintained: "see" 这里表示“确保;务必(做到)”"seeing those tariffs maintained" 可以理解为“确保这些关税继续存在”

🎧 they like the extra market share that they've gained as a result of those tariffs:

👉 market share: 市场份额

👉 as a result of: 由于,因为,是...的结果

And second of all, tariffs are a bargaining chip. So why would we sort of unilaterally get rid of these, even if there are some economic benefits, when we might use it in some negotiations down the road?

📖 其次,关税是一种谈判筹码。所以即便这样做会带来一些经济上的好处,我们为何要单方面取消这些关税呢?要知道,日后我们或许还能在某些谈判中利用关税这一手段。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 tariffs are a bargaining chip:

👉 a bargaining chip: 习语,直译为“谈判筹码”。来源于赌博或桌上游戏中的筹码, 表示在谈判或交涉中可用来交换利益或优势的东西。

🎧 So why would we sort of unilaterally get rid of these, even if there are some economic benefits:

👉 unilaterally /ˌjuːnɪˈlætrəli/: 副词,来自于 “unilateral”,意味着“单方面地”

👉 get rid of: 常用短语,意思是“去除”“摆脱”某物。

👉 economic benefits: 经济效益,指从经济角度带来的好处或利润。

🎧 when we might use it in some negotiations down the road:

👉 negotiations: 谈判,多个参与方为了达成共识而进行的讨论或协商。

👉 down the road: 习语,意指“将来”“在未来的某个时候”

man standing on road infront of high-rise buildi

Tariffs are really hard to remove. It's why, 60 years later, there's still a 25% tariff on trucks, even though U.S chicken farmers no longer care about selling in Europe.

📖 关税确实很难取消。这就是为什么即便过去了 60 年,卡车进口关税仍维持在 25%,尽管美国的养鸡户们也不再在意在欧洲销售自家产品了。

We're still living with the legacy of the chicken war. So that's sort of another lesson of history, is you have to be careful about imposing these tariffs because you think you're doing it for short-term strategic reasons, or you're just helping out this industry temporarily. And they can last for decade upon decade upon decade.

📖 我们仍在承受“鸡肉贸易战”的遗留影响。所以这在某种程度上算是历史的又一个教训,那就是你必须谨慎对待征收这些关税的行为,因为你可能认为这么做是为了短期的战略考量,或者只是暂时地帮助某个行业。而这些关税可能会持续数十年之久。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 We're still living with the legacy of the chicken war:

👉 still living with: 表示“仍然生活在…的影响下”,这里的 “living with” 不仅字面意味着“居住”,而是更抽象地指“处于…的状态或影响之中”

👉 legacy /ˈleɡəsi/: 这个词通常指“遗产”,在这里指的是过去事件或行动所留下的长期影响或后果。

🎧 So that's sort of another lesson of history, is you have to be careful about imposing these tariffs because you think you're doing it for short-term strategic reasons, or you're just helping out this industry temporarily:

👉 lesson of history:这是个常见的表达,意味着“历史的教训”。它用来指出历史中的某些事件可以给我们的当下决策提供指导或者警示。

👉 short-term strategic reasons:这里指的是那些“短期内看似有战略意义的原因”。通常这些做法看重眼前利益,可能忽视了长远后果。

👉 helping out"help out" 意味着“提供帮助或支持”

👉 temporarily /ˌtempəˈrerəli/: 副词,表示“暂时地,临时地”

🎧 And they can last for decade upon decade upon decade:

👉 decade upon decade upon decade: 修辞手法,通过重复来加强语气,使得听众感受到时间的漫长。

Tariff policy is kind of old. Even by the chicken war, they were only imposed on around 7% of U.S imports.

📖 关税政策算是比较陈旧的了。即便是在“鸡肉战争”期间,它们也只是对美国约 7% 的进口商品征收关税。

Trump's plan for a second term is to bring them back dramatically.
This is the policy that built this country, and this is the policy that will save our country.

📖 川普第二任期的计划是让他们戏剧性地回归。这是造就了这个国家的政策,也是能拯救我们这个国家的政策。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 Trump's plan for a second term is to bring them back dramatically:

👉 second term: 指的是“第二个任期”。在美国政治中,总统的任期是四年一任,而 “second term” 特指总统的第二个四年任期。

👉 to bring them back: "bring back" 是一个常用的短语,意为“恢复”“带回”

👉 dramatically /drəˈmætɪkli/: 副词,来自形容词 “dramatic”,意思是“显著地”“戏剧性地”

He's proposing a 60% tariff on everything from China, and a 10 or even 20% on every import from every other country.

📖 他提议对来自中国的所有商品征收 60%的关税,同时对来自其他国家的每一种进口商品征收 10%甚至 20%的关税。

These are going to finally, after 75 years, pay us back for all that we've done for the world.

📖 这些事情最终会在 75 年之后得到回报,届时我们会得到应有的补偿,因为我们为这个世界所做的一切付出终将得到回报。

Multiple independent studies looked at the possible effects. One found it would cost the average American household $1,700 from higher prices. Another found it could cost more than 684,000 jobs.

📖 多项独立研究对可能产生的影响进行了考察。其中一项研究发现,由于价格上涨,普通美国家庭将损失约 1700 美元。另一项研究则指出,这可能会导致超过 68.4 万个就业岗位流失。

And they don't factor in how domestic goods might get more expensive, or retaliatory tariffs from other countries.

📖 而且他们没有考虑到国内商品价格可能会上涨,也没有考虑到其他国家可能实施的报复性关税。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 And they don't factor in how domestic goods might get more expensive:

👉 factor in: 词组,意思是“把…考虑进去”

👉 domestic goods: 这里的 “domestic” 指的是“国内的”“goods” 则指的是“商品”,所以 “domestic goods” 指的是国内生产的商品。

👉 might get more expensive: 这里用到了 “might” 表示可能性,表明国内商品价格上升是一种可能性,而不是确定的事实。“Get more expensive” 是一个较为直白的表达,指“变得更贵”

🎧 or retaliatory tariffs from other countries:

👉 retaliatory tariffs: “retaliatory /rɪˈtæliətɔːri/来自动词 “retaliate /rɪˈtælieɪt/,意为“报复”。所以,“retaliatory tariffs” 指的是“报复性关税”。这通常发生在国与国之间的贸易争端中,一个国家提高关税后,另一个国家为了反击也提高关税。

They're not going to take this lying down. They're not going to change their behavior in some way to appease the administration that imposes such tariffs.

📖 他们不会任由这种状况持续下去。他们不会以某种方式改变自己的行为来安抚那些征收此类关税的政府当局。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 They're not going to take this lying down:

👉 take this lying down"Lying down" 字面意思是“躺下”,在这里,它形象地表示“不抵抗、不反抗或无动于衷”的状态。所以,当说某人 “won’t take something lying down” 时,意思是“他们不会袖手旁观,不予抵抗,而是会站出来反对、抗议或反抗”

🎧 They're not going to change their behavior in some way to appease the administration that imposes such tariffs:

👉 change their behavior: 改变他们的行为模式。

👉 in some way: 以某种方式或在某个方面。

👉 appease /əˈpiːz/: 通过让步来平息或满足某人的愿望。

They're going to retaliate. So not only will U.S imports shrink, but U.S
exports will shrink as well.

📖 他们将会进行报复。这样一来,不仅美国的进口商品数量会减少,而且美国的出口商品数量也会减少。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 So not only will U.S imports shrink, but U.S
exports will shrink as well:

👉 这里 “not only ... but also” 同样使用了倒装结构,将情态动词 “will” 提前至主语 “U.S. imports” 前。

👉 shrink /ʃrɪŋk/:动词,意为“缩减”“减少”

👉 as well:短语,意为“也”,通常放在句子末尾。

man in black jacket riding on black bicycle on road during daytime

Trump wants to use these tariffs as a revenue stream for the U.S to pay for tax cuts. As tariffs on foreign countries go up, taxes on American workers and families come down.

📖 川普希望将这些关税作为美国的一项收入来源,用于支付减税款项。随着对外国商品征收的关税提高,美国工人的税负和家庭的税负就会降低。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 Trump wants to use these tariffs as a revenue stream for the U.S to pay for tax cuts:

👉 as a revenue stream: “revenue stream” 表示“收入来源或收入流”。通常用来描述“持续的收入源”

👉 tax cuts: 这是一个经济和政治的术语,指“税收减免”

🎧 As tariffs on foreign countries go up, taxes on American workers and families come down:

👉 As: 引导时间状语从句,表示 “当……的时候;随着……”。前半句 “As tariffs on foreign countries go up” 描述一个条件:“当对外国商品征收的关税提高时”

👉 come down“减少”“降低”。所以,“taxes on American workers and families come down” 指的是“美国工人和家庭的税收减少”

Studies found his proposal would likely bring in around a quarter of a trillion dollars per year. About 5% of what the federal government currently brings in with taxes.

📖 研究发现,他的提议每年有望带来约 2500 亿美元的收入。这大约相当于联邦政府目前通过税收所得收入的 5%。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 ... his proposal would likely bring in around a quarter of a trillion dollars per year:

👉 would likely bring in:首先,“would” 通常在这种语境中用于表达对未来的预测或假设,相当于“将会”。而 “likely” 增加了一个概率的成分,意味着“有很大的可能性,但不是绝对”“bring in” 是一个常用的短语,意思是“产生收益或收入”“bring in money” 就是“赚钱”的意思。

👉 around a quarter of a trillion dollars“around” 表示“大约”“trillion” “一万亿(1,000,000,000,000)”,“a quarter of a trillion” 指的是“四分之一万亿”

So if tariffs are harmful, always harmful even, to the economy, why is Trump so focused on them?

📖 所以,如果关税对经济有害,甚至是极其有害的话,那为什么川普却如此执着于推行关税呢?

In the last 20 years, China has gotten aggressive, investing in manufacturing to become the world's largest exporter. Even today, they invest more than any other country. It has let them export things like steel and aluminum at below-market values. That coupled with numerous trade rule violations.

📖 在过去 20 年里,中国变得愈发积极进取,大力投资制造业,从而成为全球最大的出口国。即便在当下,中国的投资规模仍超过其他任何国家。这使得中国能够以低于市场的价格出口诸如钢铁和铝之类的商品。再加上众多违反贸易规则的行为。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 ...export things like steel and aluminum at below-market values:

👉 at below-market values:“below-market” 是一个合成形容词,表示“低于市场价”的。整个短语 “at below-market values” 意为“以低于市场价格(进行销售)”

🎧 That coupled with numerous trade rule violations:

👉 coupled with:意思是“与…结合”或者“加上”。它用于表示两件事情一起发生,或者一件事情是另一件事情的基础。例如,说 "A coupled with B" 就是指“A和B一起出现或者作用”

👉 numerous /ˈnuːmərəs/:形容词,意思是“许多的”“大量的”

👉 trade rule violations:“trade” 指的是“贸易”“rule” 指的是“规则”“violations” “violation 违反” 的复数形式。整个短语 “trade rule violations” 指的是“违反了贸易规则的行为”。这里的 “violation” 是一个较正式的词,指违反法规或规定的行为。

Allowed President Trump to really restart the whole discussion about using tariffs to achieve certain objectives, such as punishing other countries. And the Biden administration has just continued that. So the whole environment has really changed from 20 years ago, when trade policy was pretty quiet business.

📖 允许川普总统得以真正重启有关利用关税来达成某些目标(比如惩罚其他国家)的整个讨论进程。而拜登政府只是延续了这一做法。所以整个环境与 20 年前相比已经发生了巨大变化,当时贸易政策基本上属于相对低调的商业事务范畴。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 ...to achieve certain objectives, such as punishing other countries:

👉 achieve certain objectives: 意为“达到某些特定目标”“achieve” 是一个动词,指“实现”“达到”,而 “certain objectives” 指的是“明确的、特定的目标”

👉 such as: 用来引入例子或具体情况,意为“例如”

🎧 when trade policy was pretty quiet business:

👉 这是一个时间状语从句,其中 “when” 引导的从句用来描述主句谈论的20年前的情况。在这里,“pretty” 作为副词,增强了形容词 “quiet” 的程度,意味着“相当地安静”“quiet business” 指贸易政策在当时并不引人注目或不动荡,“比较平稳和不受大众关注”

And now we're talking about industrial policy, tariffs, subsidies, and all these different interventions, because the whole global and geopolitical environment has changed quite dramatically.

📖 现在我们谈论的是产业政策、关税、补贴以及诸如此类的各种干预手段,因为整个全球和地缘政治环境已经发生了相当大的变化。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 ...about industrial policy, tariffs, subsidies, and all these different interventions:

👉 industrial policy工业政策。指的是政府采取的一系列行为或策略,用以管理国家或地区的工业生产和商业活动,以加强特定行业的竞争力和整体经济发展。

👉 subsidies补贴。是政府向企业、组织或个人提供的财政支持,旨在鼓励某种活动或降低生产成本,从而支持本国的经济活动和市场竞争力。

👉 interventions干预措施。在经济学中,这通常指政府为了调节市场和经济,采取的手段和措施,如上文提到的关税和补贴。

🎧 the whole global and geopolitical environment has changed quite dramatically:

👉 global and geopolitical environment全球和地缘政治环境。这指涉全球范围内及各国之间在政治、经济以及安全等领域的互动环境。

👉 dramatically: 副词,表示“戏剧性地”,它用来修饰动词 “change”,说明这种改变是非常显著的。

And it would change even more dramatically with Trump's proposed tariff plan. In the short run, we know the economy will suffer. In the long run, no one really knows. Will it be a war between the U.S and the rest of the world, or the Western world against China? Trump wants to play a game of chicken to find out.

📖 而且,随着川普提出的关税计划的实施,这种变化将会更加剧烈。短期内,我们知道经济将会受损。但从长远来看,没人能确切知晓会怎样。这会是一场美国与世界其他国家之间的战争,还是西方世界与中国的对抗?川普想通过一场“博弈游戏”来找出答案。

💡 逐句精讲:

🎧 In the short run, we know the economy will suffer:

👉 In the short run:时间状语,常用于描述将要发生的事情的时间范围。这里的 “short run” 指的是“短期内”“in the short run” 意为“短期来看”。相对应的 “in the long run”,意为“长远来看”

👉 will suffer:在这里预示经济在短期内将遇到问题或衰退。

🎧 Trump wants to play a game of chicken to find out:

👉 game of chicken: 源自一种游戏。两辆车对冲而行,各自试图迫使对方首先让路,以避免相撞。这里比喻表示“双方进行危险的较量或挑战,看谁会首先退让”

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